Black takes new deal into Padres/Braves series

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Under Bud Black, the Padres have become one of the biggest successful surprises in 2010. The San Diego manager is now reaping the rewards of that achievement.

The Padres take the field for the first time since Black was given a three- year contract extension as they visit another surprise at the top of the standings, the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves, for the first of three straight games at Turner Field.

The Padres hold the NL's top record at 54-37, just ahead of the Braves' 54-38 mark, and on Monday their manager was given a new deal that also includes club options for 2014 and 2015. San Diego is 281-297 in three-plus seasons since Black was hired in November of 2006.

"This news comes at a time when the team is playing well, but my faith in Bud goes far beyond wins and losses," said general manager Jed Hoyer, who also called the extension for Black well deserved. "He and his staff are exceptionally well prepared, he embraces the challenge of teaching young players and, most importantly, the players compete for him every night."

Black's club has relied heavily on its pitching this year in its run to the top of the NL West, leading the majors with a collective 3.25 earned run average, but has plated 35 runs over a four-game win streak, San Diego's longest since also winning four in a row from May 22-26.

The Padres opened the second half with a three-game sweep of their division's last-place club, the Diamondbacks, taking Sunday's finale by a 6-4 margin. Chris Denorfia matched a career high with four hits, homering twice for the first time in his career to double his season total, as the Padres pounded out 14 hits to move a season-high 17 games over .500.

Tony Gwynn Jr. added a pair of hits, two walks and two stolen bases and Kevin Correia got the win after allowing three runs over six innings, striking out a season-high nine batters for San Diego, which leads the NL West by four games over the Giants.

The Padres figure to face a stiffer challenge tonight in the Braves, who lead the NL East by 5 1/2 games over the Mets but had lost three of four prior to Sunday's 11-6 triumph over the Brewers. Brian McCann hit the sixth grand slam of his career and drove in a season-high five runs as Atlanta split its four- game series.

"Anytime you get the bases loaded you want to get a big hit with less than two outs. I was lucky enough to get an 0-2 pitch that I know the pitcher didn't want to put it there, but I capitalized on it," McCann said. "Everybody hit today, it was a great team effort. Everybody worked the count, took what the pitcher gave us and were able to score some runs."

Matt Diaz also homered and drove in three runs, while Omar Infante had four hits, two RBI and scored twice. Winning pitcher Derek Lowe yielded three runs over 5 1/3 innings of work as Atlanta was without third baseman Chipper Jones for a second game in a row due to a left hamstring strain.

Atlanta might not need Jones again tonight given how Jair Jurrjens has pitched in three games since returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA since coming back and he beat Milwaukee on Thursday after giving up just a run on six hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings of a 2-1 triumph.

Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts and has been tough to handle this year at Turner Field, where he is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts.

One of Jurrjens' outings before his injury came in San Diego on April 12 and he was drilled for eight runs over just 3 1/3 innings of a 17-2 setback, falling to 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts versus the Padres.

Jurrjens will try to deal the Padres their first loss since Wade LeBlanc's last outing on July 10, when he gave up four runs on nine hits, including three homers, over 5 2/3 innings of a setback to the Rockies.

The 25-year-old lefty, who faces the Braves for the first time in his career this evening, fell to 4-7 on the season with a 3.30 ERA.

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox won't be calling the shots tonight after getting suspended for a game on Monday. Cox and reliever Jonny Venters were both ejected on Saturday after Venters hit Milwaukee's Prince Fielder with a pitch in the eighth inning after warnings had already been issued to both benches. Venters was suspended for four games by major league baseball and given an undisclosed fine.

The Braves took two of three from the Padres in San Diego from April 12-15 and have won seven of the last nine played at Turner Field in the series.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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